This is a situation where the traders will continue to look at this area as the gateway to much lower pricing.
The AUD/USD currency pair has gone back and forth during trading on Monday as we continue to threaten the 0.67 level. We have pierced that level a couple of times now, so it should not be a huge surprise to see that there is a big fight on her hands. This is an area that has been important multiple times in the past, and most certainly will attract a lot of attention if we were to break through it. Ultimately, I do think this is a situation where the traders out there will continue to look at this area as the gateway to much lower pricing.
FED Statement and Press Conference Ahead this Week
When you look at the longer-term charts, it has been important multiple times through the years, and I think that is something that cannot be overstated. These big levels typically open up huge moves, but it may take a while to get there. I think that the 0.65 level makes quite a bit of sense based on history and the fact that the market seems like large numbers like that. It is also worth noting that the Federal Reserve has an important interest rate decision this week, which although most people recognize that 75 basis points of tightening are almost guaranteed, the reality is that people will be paying close attention to the statement and the press conference more than anything else. It’s the forward guidance that could get things moving. Ultimately, this is a situation where I think you will have to pay close attention to what’s being said.
If we do really start to see a lot of volatility, we could get a massive spike higher, which will almost certainly be squashed as there are a lot of concerns about growth. It’s not just about high-interest rates, but it is also about the possibility that the global economy is slowing down.
- Australia’s highly levered to the commodities market, which course will see a lot less in demand if things are in fact starting to run into problems.
- Given enough time, we are more likely than not going to see more of a “fade the rally” type of attitude.
- If we were to break down below the lows, it’s going to get ugly really quick as the Aussie has very little in the way of support underneath.